Something a bit bigger has been bubbling under the surface in aviation this month… and it is starting to show up in the numbers clients see on their tickets. Jet fuel prices have reached levels not seen since the early days of the Ukraine conflict. Surcharges on long-haul routes are already climbing, and airline executives are openly signalling that wider fare rises are on the way later in the year.
The Spark Behind The Price Spike
On 28 February 2026, US-Israeli military strikes hit Iran. Within days, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 50% of Europe’s jet fuel imports travel, was effectively closed to normal operations.
According to IATA’s latest fuel price monitor, global average jet fuel prices rose 82.8% in a single month, reaching $175 per barrel by mid-March 2026. By 27 March, prices had climbed to $197 per barrel, up from $95.95 on 20 February. On an annual basis, jet fuel is now 94.4% more expensive than it was a year ago. Fuel typically makes up 20 to 40% of an airline’s total operating costs, so a near-doubling in five weeks is significant across the whole industry.
Why Fares Have Not Doubled Overnight
The reason clients have not seen their summer holiday prices spike overnight comes down to one thing: fuel hedging. And right now, that buffer is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Airlines buy fuel at locked-in prices months or years in advance to protect themselves against exactly this type of market shock. European airlines have, on average, hedged around 80% of their fuel requirements for 2026, according to the Financial Times.
Coverage varies across carriers, though. British Airways parent company IAG enters Q2 at 64% hedged, falling to 58% in Q3 and 50% in Q4. easyJet has 84% of its first-half fuel covered, falling to 62% in the second half. Ryanair sits at around 84% through H1.
IAG confirmed on 10 March that it does not plan to raise ticket prices in the immediate future. That is genuinely useful reassurance for agents with clients considering long-haul British Airways bookings right now. The protection does reduce across the year, though, which becomes relevant for autumn travel conversations.
Hedging is a cushion, not a permanent shield. As existing contracts expire, airlines renew them at today’s higher spot prices. That is the point at which fares are widely expected to move.
Surcharges Are Already Moving
The bit that is quietly changing already is the surcharge line on tickets. Headline fares have held relatively steady. But the fuel surcharge is moving now, and it is the most immediately visible impact for clients booking long-haul routes this week.
Cathay Pacific provides the clearest real-time example. For routes between Europe, the USA and Australia, the per-ticket fuel surcharge moved from US$72.90 before 18 March, to US$149.20 between 18 and 31 March. From 1 April, that figure rises to US$200 per ticket. That represents a 174% rise since February. For a return trip between London and Hong Kong, the surcharge element alone now adds US$400 to the cost, up from US$145.80 six weeks ago.
For clients booking business class on transatlantic routes, the carrier-imposed surcharge can now exceed $2,000 on a return trip. That figure does not always appear prominently on comparison sites, which is another area where having an informed agent alongside makes a real difference.
Where Fares Are Likely To Go From Here
The question clients will ask most often is the obvious one: will flights get cheaper if they wait?
Based on what airline executives and analysts are saying this month, probably not.
easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis said in late March that ticket prices are likely to rise by the end of the summer season. That is contingent on fuel costs remaining at current levels. Travel analyst David Evans, speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live in March, advised travellers to book now ahead of an expected rise. The Times, on 26 March, noted that booking early remains the most practical way to lock in current rates.
The average nine-night package holiday now stands at £1,389 per person. Prices are unlikely to come down significantly until global oil stabilises below $80 per barrel, and Brent crude is currently sitting at around $100.
The Practical Picture For Your Conversations This Week
There are a few points worth carrying into client calls this week, only the ones that make a real difference to the conversation.
Spring and early summer fares on easyJet and Ryanair routes are currently well-covered. That protection reduces as H2 approaches, so clients considering a late summer trip have a practical reason to act sooner rather than later.
For anyone with an Asia trip in the pipeline, Cathay Pacific’s surcharges rise a further 34% from 1 April. Clients who have not yet booked will want to know about that before the end of this week.
For clients considering a package holiday, UK Package Travel Regulations offer a useful protection. A tour operator can only raise the price due to fuel costs if that possibility is expressly written into the contract. The change must also fall within 20 days of departure. If any increase exceeds 8% of the total package price, the client has the right to cancel. That is a level of consumer protection that a DIY flight-and-hotel booking simply does not offer.
The full picture is a busy one, but it comes down to something fairly straightforward. The best thing agents can do for clients right now is have the conversation early, while current pricing still holds.
